Pre-news signals
SEC EDGAR filings, token unlock calendar, options IV/skew/term structure (Deribit + Hyperliquid), and the LLM catalyst classifier — the signals that fire before price moves.
Most market signals are reactive — they describe what just happened. Pre-news signals are the opposite: they fire before the headline lands, when the catalyst is already on-chain or on file but the broader market hasn't priced it in yet.
Four streams feed the pre-news surface. They run continuously and contribute to the onChain and socialNarrative families inside the Predictor.
SEC EDGAR filings
Public-company filings frequently telegraph crypto-impact catalysts hours or days before the news cycle:
- A spot ETF issuer's
8-Kfiling on a creation/redemption update - A MicroStrategy
Form 4insider transaction - A miner's
10-Qahead of an earnings call - A SPAC's
S-1with a crypto-themed sponsor
The EDGAR adapter polls the SEC RSS feed continuously, parses filings against a watchlist of crypto-correlated tickers (BTC ETFs, miners, treasury holders, stablecoin issuers), and emits structured { filer, form, timestamp, summary, polarity } events.
Polarity is set by the LLM catalyst classifier (below); the timestamp is captured at EDGAR-publish time, not at the operator-pickup time, so back-tests against historical filings preserve the real lead.
Token unlock calendar
Vesting unlocks are scheduled, on-chain, and publicly known — but the market often forgets which date is coming next.
The unlock calendar tracks every public unlock event on the supported chains: cliff dates, linear-vesting milestones, treasury releases, foundation tranches. Each entry includes the wallet that will receive the unlock, the token amount, and the share of circulating supply the event represents.
Unlocks that cross a 5% of circulating supply threshold flag automatically:
Upcoming unlocks · next 30 days ETH+5d ARB 92.6M ARB 7.4% of supply → Arbitrum FoundationETH+12d WLD 37.5M WLD 3.1% of supply → Worldcoin TreasuryETH+18d AVAX 9.5M AVAX 2.6% of supply → A16Z (linear vest)ETH+24d SUI 64.0M SUI 3.7% of supply → Sui FoundationThe Predictor reads the calendar as a prior on the onChain family — symbols with a large near-term unlock get a bearish prior that gradually unwinds over the post-unlock window as the actual selling pressure resolves.
Options IV, skew, term structure
The options surface is the closest thing to a market-implied probability distribution. The Pre-news layer pulls live snapshots from two venues:
- Deribit — the dominant BTC and ETH options venue; full chain (strikes × expiries) refreshed every minute
- Hyperliquid — on-chain perpetuals + options; growing share of long-tail token coverage
For each underlying, the adapter computes:
| Metric | What it measures | Used as |
|---|---|---|
| ATM IV | Implied volatility at the at-the-money strike | Vol-regime baseline |
| 25Δ skew | Difference between 25-delta call and put IV | Directional pressure (positive skew = put-side panic) |
| Term inversion | Front-month IV minus 3-month IV | Event clustering (positive inversion = imminent event priced) |
| Put-call ratio | Open interest weighted by side | Aggregate positioning |
Inside the Predictor, these flow into the logicRules family (the Polaris v0.15.5+ FOL pack includes funding-z, options-skew, and IV-term-inversion rules) and into the predictionMarkets family (Gamma's implied-probability extraction reads the same chain).
LLM catalyst classifier
The narrative-side counterpart to the on-chain feeds. The classifier reads every crypto headline that lands on the news adapters (CryptoPanic, CoinGecko, Reddit, 4chan), and emits a structured catalyst object per article:
{"headline": "Coinbase to list Polygon's POL token at 12:00 UTC tomorrow","catalyst": "exchange-listing","polarity": 0.78,"confidence": 0.91,"subject": "POL","expectedHorizon": "1d"}The classifier runs Claude by default, with GPT-4 and Gemini as fallbacks. Each article is prompt-cached per day so re-reads cost nothing; the daily article budget is operator-configurable (default 50 articles / day for the free tier of the news adapters, raised by the operator on the paid tier).
The catalyst types span the universe of crypto-impact events:
exchange-listing · unlock · partnership · regulatory · protocol-upgrade · hack · delisting · etf-flow · macro-event · legal · unclassified
Each type carries its own expected-horizon prior — a listing news pulse fades within ~24h, a regulatory headline can grind for weeks. The Predictor reads both polarity and expectedHorizon when sizing the catalyst's contribution to a forecast.
How the Predictor uses pre-news
Pre-news signals don't compete with the directional engine — they shape its priors:
- Bayesian update uses recent catalyst polarity as a family prior on
socialNarrative - Manipulation guard vetoes directional emissions within 3 hours of a high-impact macro catalyst (FOMC, CPI, fed-speak) — see the Predictor abstention rules
- Horizon selection — when a near-term catalyst is detected, the Predictor biases toward longer horizons (post-event) rather than scalp horizons that the catalyst would invalidate
The pre-news feed itself is rendered on the Web Dashboard and via the /v1/market/news REST endpoint. Operators can subscribe to per-symbol catalyst alerts on Telegram via /alert news <symbol>.
Tier gating
- Free — recent headlines on every scanned symbol; trending news feed
- Pro — full LLM catalyst classifier on every prediction; unlock alerts on watchlist symbols
- Elite — SEC EDGAR live feed; Deribit + Hyperliquid options IV / skew; pre-news signal trigger snapshots embedded in every prediction record
Adjacent reading
- Cross-venue intelligence — premium spreads + funding-z divergence
- Signal families — how pre-news contributes to
onChain+socialNarrative - Predictor — how the priors shape the directional emission